Search results for "foreign exchange market"
showing 10 items of 12 documents
Hard currency indebtedness of the developed socialist countries
1985
In recent years the problems of the indebtedness of the communist countries have been driven somewhat into the background by the high foreign indebtedness of many developing countries and the attention attracted by the balance of payments crises in Brazil and Mexico. Yet there are many indications that the need for the socialist debtor nations to adjust their balance of payments policy has not lessened but, to a large extent, simply been deferred. It is therefore not unlikely that the 1980s will witness a new need to solve the problems of those nations and their creditors in the West.
Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule : Evidence from OECD countries
2017
We analyze the effects of stock market and exchange rate information in a forward-looking Taylor rule for monthly data from 14 OECD countries during the years 1999–2016. Especially the stock market information in the form of dividend but also the currency market information in the form of real exchange rate are revealed to be relevant in Taylor rule for many of the countries examined by helping to strengthen the role of inflation and real economic activity deviations in the policy rule. In many cases the rule also seems to be opportunistic, i.e., the inflation target has been time-varying. peerReviewed
Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility
2019
The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link. This paper investigates the causal linkages in volatility between crude oil prices and six major bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in the time-frequency space using high-frequency intraday data. Special attention is paid to the potential asymmetries in the causal effects between oil and forex markets. The wavelet-based Granger causality method proposed by Olayeni (2016) is applied to quantify the causal relations in the time and frequency domains simultaneously. Moreover, the realized semivariance approach of Barndoff-Nielsen et a…
Media Tone Goes Viral: Global Evidence from the Currency Market
2020
Using several million news and social media articles related to currencies, we examine the role of media tone in predicting the exchange rate returns of 12 developed and 24 emerging markets from 1998 to 2016. The text-based currency Media tone is a strong positive predictor of currency excess returns beyond fundamentals of one to three months ahead and six months cumulatively, with the average in-sample and out-of-sample R^2s of 4.45% and 9.03% in the US. The one-month predictability is observed in four other developed markets and 18 emerging market currencies, with the latter showing a stronger pattern. This predictability encompasses previous month currency returns, currency factors, macr…
Determining the RMB Exchange Regime
2011
Although China has claimed since 2005 that it will move towards a more market-oriented system of managing its foreign exchange, it has remained, in part, a managed economic system. This chapter examines the relative importance of fundamentalist, chartist and currency arrangements in determining the RMB exchange regime using both traditional linear and non-linear artificial intelligence models. We find that the emphasis on the US dollar as a reference currency has declined. Fundamentalist forces are becoming strong determinants of the currency exchange. The genetic programming approach is among the best performing in minimizing forecasting error.
Sentiment Across Asset Markets
2018
In this paper, we study investor sentiment in five major asset markets: stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and housing. Based on Thomson Reuter's sentiment measures extracted from 235 news and social media sources, we find that each market is predicted by its own sentiment. Cross-markets, kitchen sink regressions reveal that the stock market is influenced only by bond sentiment, while bond market is affected just by currency market, which is largely unexplained by others; the commodities are related to currencies and housing, and housing can be predicted by stock and bond sentiment. In an efficient information aggregation by the partial least square (PLS), the predictability of each ma…
Contagion of Uncertainty: Transmission of Risk from the Cryptocurrency Market to the Foreign Exchange Market
2019
Earlier research documented that cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, have experienced dramatic fluctuations in both market capitalization and market share in recent years. Unsurprisingly, Bitcoin returns exhibit higher volatility than traditional G-10 currencies. Our paper extends earlier research and investigates the potential impact of news originating from the Bitcoin market. Confirming earlier studies, we find that Bitcoin exhibits dramatically higher volatility than the dollar factor. Surprisingly, our findings indicate that only hacking incidents that occur in the Bitcoin market result in high levels of co-movement in the risk of both markets the cryptocurrency and the G-10 currency …
Identifying Portfolio-Based Risk Factors in Foreign Exchange Markets
2018
This paper shows that a link between the conditional mean and conditional volatility of any factor-mimicking portfolio in the foreign exchange (FX) market must exist if the proposed portfolio-based currency factor is priced and the pricing kernel has a linear factor structure. Thereby, this paper tests whether the carry risk factor and currency momentum are priced risk factors. Surprisingly, the carry risk factor does not meet the necessary conditions consistent with being a priced risk factor, whereas currency momentum indeed meets those criteria. The findings also indicate that the relation between the conditional mean and conditional risk is moreover economically reasonable for the curre…
Are Momentum Crashes Pervasive Regardless of Strategy? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market
2016
This paper studies the option-like behavior of popular momentum strategies implemented in foreign exchange markets. The results confirm those of Daniel and Moskowitz (2013) in finding strong option-like behavior for both momentum measures, based on the cumulative return from 12 and 6 months prior to the formation date to one month prior to the formation date. Surprisingly, there is no such evidence for the popular momentum strategy accounting for a one-month formation period.
Cross-border capital flows and information spillovers across the equity and currency markets in emerging economies
2021
This paper presents a novel perspective on the interaction between equity and currency markets in emerging market economies (EMEs) by (i) examining the nonlinear effects of capital flows on return spillovers between the stock and currency markets in a sample of twelve EMEs via the causality-in-quantiles approach of Balcilar et al., (2016), and (ii) providing a comparative analysis of the influence of debt versus equity flows over the spillover patterns. We show that the causal effects of international debt and equity flows on return spillovers across the equity and FX markets are largely concentrated at lower quantiles, suggesting that the arrival of information via capital flows tends to e…